Blue and White sees minor bump in poll; Netanyahu’s bloc short of majority

Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s struggling Blue and White party is enjoying a slight uptick in support, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing religious bloc remains short of a governing majority, according to a television poll aired Tuesday.

The Channel 12 survey said Netanyahu’s Likud party would be the biggest if the March 23 elections were held today, picking up 28 seats, down from its current total of 36. A poll released by the network last week had Likud winning 29 seats.

The second largest party after Likud in the poll was Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party with 18 seats. The next two largest factions were the right-wing New Hope and Yamina parties, which were forecast to get 13 and 11 seats, respectively.

The predominantly Arab Joint List received nine seats in the survey, while the ultra-Orthodox Shas party got eight seats and fellow Haredi faction United Torah Judaism received seven, as did the right-wing secularist Yisrael Beytenu.

The survey gave the center-left Labor Party six seats and Blue and White five, up from other recent polls released by the network in which Gantz had four seats.

Rounding out the poll was the far-right National Religious Party and the left-wing Meretz, with four seats a piece.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center), Interior Minister Aryeh Deri (right) and then-health minister Yaakov Litzman (left) attend a conference in Lod on November 20, 2016. (Kobi Gideon/GPO)

Along with its Haredi allies and the National Religious party, Netanyahu’s Likud-led bloc had 47 seats. Even if Yamina were to join them, the parties would be short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.

While anti-Netanyahu parties had 62 seats between them, they are divided by deep ideological differences and no faction head appeared to have a clear path to forming a government.

Asked who was best suited to be prime minister, 31 percent of respondents said Netanyahu, 20% Lapid, 15% New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar and 13% Yamina chief Naftali Bennett.

The survey was conducted by pollster Manu Geva and included 506 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.4%.

The release of the poll came as the Haaretz daily reported Geva was working with Blue and White ahead of the elections, and that the party was faring better in surveys he released compared to those commissioned by other outlets.

Every poll released by the network this election season has Blue and White entering the Knesset, while those released by other television stations and media firms had the party failing to clear the minimum electoral threshold at least once, according to the Haaretz analysis.

Geva said in response he works with all parties besides Likud and stressed the poll results were based on strictly professional criteria. Channel 12, Israel’s largest commercial TV broadcaster, said all surveys commissioned by it were conducted “independently and objectively.”

Manu Geva (Screen capture: YouTube)

While horse-race polls are an almost daily occurrence in Israel in the months leading up to elections and are not seen as overly reliable, taken together the surveys can often serve as a general gauge of the political climate and where the vote may be headed.

Previous surveys have generally predicted political deadlock after the election, with no party having a clear path to assembling a majority coalition.

National elections — the fourth in two years — were called after the power-sharing government of Likud and Blue and White failed to agree on a budget by a December 23 deadline.

The election, like the previous three votes, is largely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s rule amid his ongoing trial on corruption charges, as well as his government’s varied success battling the pandemic.

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